It’s a decidedly risk on day in the markets. While initially feared to be a rally killer, the Euro Summit has bolstered investor confidence in the Eurozone’s ability to pull through this rough patch with minimal damage (though analysts don’t quite agree), and as a result, we’re seeing financials, metals, and most currencies bouncing in joy. Over the past couple of months, most of this kind of risk on behavior winds up being embraced in every market, but today, grains and softs are marching to the beat of their own drum.
Now, we are certainly not fundamental traders, but, in many ways, this behavior makes more sense than the risk on trading occurring elsewhere. The USDA report today indicated lower demand for most grains for livestock feed and higher supplies for cotton and orange crops. Cocoa, in the meantime, is extending its longest slump in 50 years on a continued supply glut. These things should, theoretically, cause prices to drop.
Except, as we’ve written about before, these kinds of reports are far from reliable. Not only are they based on estimates and frequently revised, but they also don’t make a whole lot of sense in the big picture. We’ll know for sure come January, when the USDA releases actuals for the markets in question, but in the meantime, someone else seems to think they know something. Rumor has it that one individual or firm purchased 10,000 December 2012 $7.00 Corn calls for $.22-.25 each. In layman’s terms- someone is betting around $11 million on Corn prices soaring by mid-November of 2012.
Do they know something the USDA doesn’t? Guess we’ll find out…
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