While the stock market crash since yesterday afternoon is what everyone is talking about, there is (as I’m constantly telling my mother), more than one ‘market’ out there, and looking at said markets, via Finviz and as of 10:20 AM, those markets (as in all of them) are going down are down an average of 2.82%… and don’t appear to be slowing their trajectory. A couple of interesting thoughts…
[Note: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Numbers below represent data at time of post composition.]
- Copper – The metal is down 7.07% today, down over 25% from 2011 highs in February. Most multi market programs we follow are short Copper and loving this move.
- Gold/Silver – Unlike Copper, Gold being down 4.26% and Silver being down 8.87% represents a sharp reversal of the uptrend, likely causing pain for some.
- Wheat – The grain is down -2.16% today, but has also moved down on 11 out of 14 trading days in September, with an average daily move of -1.2%. Few managers are in this short trade.
- Crude Oil – Black gold is down -5.16% today, despite its run back up to 90. Most mutli-market systematic have stayed short this market. It’s getting close to time to update our analysis of a trend following trade series…
- How low can we go? – For those of you who thought the days that followed the U.S. debt downgrade had formed a bottom for commodity prices, think again. We’re seeing new 2011 lows busting through the August 8th volatility spike lows in cocoa, palladium, the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and more. Whether they stick that way until the close is another question entirely.
- Bonds – We’ve talked about this before, folks. Managed futures is in love with bonds, and despite all odds they are continuing to go higher, along with, it appears the U.S. dollar… (thanks Bernanke)
The day is really just getting started, and there’s no predicting what comes next. What we do know is that Clarke Capital’s programs and Quantum Leap appear to be doing well in this movement. Even FCI, in both their OSS and CPP programs, was able to correctly identify the downtrend, and are mostly short. Discretionary trader Mesirow was in the same camp. However, results are more mixed on the short-term side of things. Dominion, for example, is doing well, while Bouchard Capital is struggling. [Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading is complex and presents a risk of substantial losses.]
We’ll see where things stand when the dust settles. Until then, hang on tight- this could be a bumpy ride.