REFCO - What happened? What should you do?

October 17, 2005

 

It has been a very busy week for those in the futures industry as the name REFCO has been all over the financial news since last Monday. The company first announces that they had not reported a $430 Million receivable from a company owned by CEO Phil Bennett as a "related party" transaction.

Mr. Bennett was arrested shortly thereafter and charged with securities fraud, but credit downgrades, a shuttering of their non regulated derivatives business, and the unwinding of positions at their stock and bond trading arm followed.

This was a very big deal to those who had invested in the August initial public offering (IPO) of the stock, and investors reacted accordingly - sending the stock down 72% last week alone. This was also a bit of a shock to over 200,000 futures customers around the world who see Refco at the top of their daily account statements.

But I am here to say that all such futures customers who hold their accounts through Refco, your funds remain 100% safe, as they are in a segregated funds account at non affiliated banks such as Harris Trust and Bank in Chicago. Customer funds are not considered an asset of Refco's, and Refco can not use customer funds to meet any debt obligations, pay fines, etc.

Even if Refco' stock went to "0.00" and the firm went bankrupt, the introducing brokers such as Attain who use Refco as a clearing firm would still be able to execute your trades and your funds would still be in their segregated accounts. I liken it to flying on United airlines even though they have gone bankrupt. The airline doesn't get to take your luggage and sell your belongings to meet their debts, and their planes don't randomly fall out of the sky. They remain operating and servicing their customers.

What Happened?

What happened was some fancy accounting to make Refco's balance sheet appear about $430 Million stronger than it may have actually been. Details are still unclear, but here is what we know.

The company has not been reporting a $430 Million receivable from a company owned by CEO Phil Bennett as a "related party" transaction for several years.

As reported in the Wall Street Journal reporters Kara SCANNELL and PETER A. MCKAY:

"Mr. Bennett kept his debts to the company hidden through a fairly simple arrangement under which he essentially rented the balance sheet of one of Refco's customers, so that it would appear that the customer owed Refco the money, rather than Mr. Bennett. That had the effect of covering up a massive so-called related-party transaction that companies are supposed to disclose to investors to alert them to potential conflicts of interest that could hurt the company down the road.

In one example outlined in the criminal charges against Mr. Bennett, a Refco subsidiary named Refco Capital Markets on Feb. 23 lent $335 million to an unnamed customer — identified by knowledgeable people as Liberty Corner. The loan was to be repaid two weeks later, March 8, just after the end of Refco's fiscal year.

Simultaneously, Liberty Corner lent the same amount to Refco Group Holdings Inc., the entity prosecutors charge Mr. Bennett controlled, for the same two-week period — at an interest rate 0.75 percentage point higher. That higher rate gave Liberty Corner an estimated profit of roughly $90,000. "The result of these transactions was to substitute a $335 million debt to Refco by the customer for a $335 million debt" owed by the Bennett-controlled entity, the criminal charge said."

What is a Clearing Firm? Why are they in the picture?

A seeming simple question which has come out of all of this is what exactly does a clearing firm do, and why does a firm like Attain need to open its accounts through a firm like Refco? The answer to that question goes back to where futures contracts are traded. Futures contracts are traded on regulated futures exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (home of e-mini and full size S&P futures) and Chicago Board of Trade (home of Soybean and Bond futures).

In order for anyone to trade a futures contract on one of these exchanges, they must be a member of the exchange. But with millions of different firms and individuals wishing to trade these products, it is impractical for each and every one of them to be a member of the exchange. For one thing, it's darn expensive, with recent seat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade going for a record $2.25 Million in July and memberships at the New York Mercantile Exchange where energies are traded going for $2.75 Million in September.

So without each and every individual willing or able to become a member of the various exchanges, several members created clearing firms to place the orders of individual clients and firms interested in trading futures. The clearing firms then "clear" these trades, which is a fancy way of saying they do the trade on the customer's behalf - then assign the trade to the customer - all the while making sure the customer has enough money to be putting on the trade, etc.

For a firm like Attain Capital which trades across nearly 15 different futures exchanges, it is impractical to become a member of each exchange, and we are therefore an Independent Introducing Broker with multiple clearing arrangements across the futures industry. The clearing firm acts as an intermediary between Attain and its customers and the various futures exchange. The clearing firm owns the expensive memberships allowing them to transact business on the exchanges on the customer's behalf, while Attain deals directly with the customer and uses the clearing firm to process customer trades.

Dispelling Rumors:

Rumors were flying last week about customer accounts at Refco. Many investors worried that they would lose their assets held at Refco, or at best lose the ability to withdraw or transfer their funds. These rumors were not helped by Refco's announcement on Wednesday that they were imposing a 15 day moratorium on customer withdrawals at Refco Capital Markets.

Refco Capital Markets is NOT the entity which handles futures trades, and is in NO WAY associated with processing exchange traded futures trades. Refco LLC is the entity responsible for processing the futures trades, and as has been confirmed by the CFTC and CME — Refco LLC is in excess of the capital they are required to have per government regulations. Thus the ability of clients withdrawal or transfer funds remains and has remained 100% intact.

The reason Refco Capital Markets had to impose a moratorium and the reason Refco LLC, the entity which handles the futures business, will not — is that Refco Capital Markets handles the off-exchange, non regulated derivative transactions for the firm; while Refco LLC handles regulated, exchange traded derivatives.

Refco Capital Markets acts as the counterparty to these off-exchange transactions, meaning they guarantee the profits and losses of investors utilizing non-regulated derivatives through them. An example of an off exchange, non-regulated derivative is Forex trading. As the counter-party to these types of trades, they obviously need a great deal of capital and their recent credit downgrade and stock decline has led to them taking moves to protect this capital in order to continue to act as a counter-party to those trades. Refco LLC handles futures trades done on regulated exchange traded futures. An example of these would be full size S&P or emini S&P futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME is the counterparty to these trades (NOT Refco), and the CME guarantees the profits and losses due to customers form these trades (NOT Refco)

The next rumor that startled investors was the disclosure on Friday that Refco Securities LLC was unwinding proprietary and customer positions. The obvious worry many individuals had was that their positions would be unwound without their consent and without notification. What the brilliant talking heads on the news forgot to mention was that 1. this was Refco's stock and bond trading side, 2. that this unwinding of positions was for Refco's own positions, and 3. any unwinding of customer positions was at the request of the customer.

So, while this all may seem very confusing and a little disheartening, the fact of the matter is that the futures industry has been designed by its participants and the government to handle situations just like this, and there are layers of protection for the customer. For those investors that trade regulated, exchange traded futures, you are protected by the government (regulated) and the exchanges (exchange traded).

What if Refco goes Bankrupt?

As a general matter, the laws and regulations governing the insolvency of FCMs and clearing firms are designed to minimize losses to customers by providing certain protections to customer accounts. These protections include requiring the segregation of customer funds from those belonging to the FCM or clearing firm, giving priority to the claims of customers, and expansively defining the category of property that may be considered "customer property" subject to a customer's claim.

Should Refco go bankrupt,(or any FCM for that matter) here are the answers to some specific questions:

1. What happens to the cash in my account?

The Commodity Exchange Act requires that funds deposited by a customer with an FCM be maintained in a "segregated" account for the exclusive benefit of the depositing customer. The term "segregated" refers to separating the funds of all the customers (treated as a class) from the FCM's own funds (sometimes referred to as "proprietary" funds) which the FCM uses in its own operations.

If an FCM became insolvent, the FCM would be prohibited from using "customer property" to pay obligations it owes to persons other than its commodity customers. (The term "customer property" includes cash, securities or other property received, acquired or held by the FCM to margin, guarantee, secure, purchase or sell a commodity contract for a customer, as well as an open commodity contract itself.) The "segregated" funds held for customer accounts should remain intact and the customers would be protected from the FCM's insolvency.

Generally, in such circumstances, cash in customer accounts is promptly transferred, along with the customers' open positions, to a solvent FCM even before a trustee is appointed to administer the bankruptcy. After such a transfer takes place, the customer is free to transfer his funds and open positions to the FCM of his choice.

2. What happens to open positions in my account?

If there were no shortfall in the amount of funds segregated for customers, generally the customers' open positions would be transferred to another FCM as quickly as possible.

3. What happens to Treasury Bills purchased for my account but in the name of the commodity company?

If there were no shortfall in the amount of funds segregated for customers, then the Treasury bills held for a particular customer would be transferred to another FCM along with the customer's cash margin and open positions.

What should you Do?

The first thing you may want to do is hear from one of the regulators. As Refco is a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME), the CME has been all over the story and insuring the proper capitalization levels are in place to protect customer funds.

I would encourage all concerned parties to contact Mr. Dale Michaels, director of risk management at the CME. Mr Michaels has offered to answer any and all questions regarding customer positions and funds. His number is (312) 930-3062.

For those Introducing brokers who introduce clients to Refco and are looking for a relationship with another firm, Attain Capital has been doing due diligence on all of the available clearing firms for over 2 years now, and is happy to share our experience and contacts with the different clearing firms with any fellow brokers or brokerage firms.

From and individual investor perspective - we realize there may still be several investors out there who may still feel uncomfortable with Refco. Attain has been in contact with each and everyone of its customers through the past week and several have decided to make a move.

If you are thinking of making a move, Attain is prepared to facilitate a transfer of your funds and positions to another clearing firm we deal with - Peregrine Financial (PFG) - whom we have been working with closely and have the greatest of confidence in.

If you would like more information on how that may work - please call or email us at your earliest convenience.

- Jeff Malec

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE
Futures based investments are often complex and can carry the risk of substantial losses. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

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Chart of the Week : Refco Timeline of Events

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Corporate scandal, inflation, higher interest rates, it seemed like the bears had control of Wall St. last week. But a late week rally saw stocks climb after hitting 8 month lows of 1175.00 in the SP futures on Thursday.

For the week, SP futures were virtually unchanged and closed -0.84% lower, while NASDAQ futures were down nearly the same percentage at -0.83%. There was more weakness in the small caps however with Russell 2000 futures falling -1.96% and Midcap 400 futures dropping -1.77%, as investors seem to be shifting back into blue chips. Investor sentiment was mixed in Asia as well with Nikkei 225 futures gaining +1.82%, while Hang Seng Index futures dropped -2.24%.

The stock market weakness came despite lower energy prices. Don’t look now but Unleaded Gas futures moved lower despite continued low Crude Oil output in the Gulf of Mexico. Gas prices fell over 5.00% although another potential hurricane is brewing in the Gulf which could cause prices to rise this week. The other energy markets all closed slightly lower with Crude Oil falling -0.60%, Natural Gas dropping -0.66%, and Heating Oil falling -0.53%.

Bond prices continued to fall last week as higher inflation numbers continue to weigh on the bond market. 30 year bonds led the way falling -1.42% and 10 year notes dropped -0.74%. Surprisingly, the foreign currency markets ignored the inflation data as Eurocurrency, the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and Dollar Index all finished unchanged last week.

Finally, Soybeans rallied back towards 6.00 per bushel after gaining +4.47% last week and Cattle futures sold off sharply on rumors that big Refco customers were unwinding positions.

*Day Trading**

The majority of the short term models found it difficult to turn a profit last week due to some wild swings in the equity markets.

A notable exception to the statement above was Compass SP, which profited +$1,655 for the week. The system was able to filter out the “noise” of the market and saw gains on four out of five trades last week. The system favored the short side for most of the week but also found success going long on Friday for profits. Bounce eRL and Bounce eMD were the only other systems to profit, making +$280 and +$410 respectively on long trades from Friday.

Two systems that were able to escape the week with small losses were Nautilus ES, which lost -$75 and Impetus eRL, which lost -$150 per contract. Impetus eRL followed its loss on Wednesday with a winning trade on Friday to end the week on a positive note.

Other systems struggled to find rhythm in last weeks’ market activity. Magnitude ES and Helix ES lost -$617.50 and -$622.50 a piece. RC Success ES traded every day last week for a total loss of -$900.

Closing out the week's activity, Daybreaker SP lost -$1,425 on two trades taken on Wednesday and Friday, Clipper eRL got caught up in some reversal trades that lost on both the short and long sides, losing -$1,629.30 total for the week, while R-Mesa eRL and R-Mesa SP both struggled to identify short term trends of the market, losing -$2,457.10 and -$5,785 respectively.

**Swing Trading**

Last week added to the exceptional month of trading for most index swing trading systems as the October’s selling frenzy continued.

On the week 10 out of 13 active swing systems were profitable on an open and closed trade basis. Of the ten, four were from the TradingVisions family of systems combining for a total gain of +$8,775.30 in 4 different markets. Axiom Index eMD topped the charts with gains of +$3,935.30. Delphi eRL hit a profit target and locked in +$2,390, Axiom Index ES gained +$1,600, and finally Axiom Index NQ gained +$850.

Eclipse eRL also posted a sold week as it closed out an open short position for +$2,530 in profits. Other winners included Tzar NQ+$570, Bounce eMD swing with profits of +$410, and Bounce eRL swing which earned +$280.

In the index markets Tzar ES, eRL, and eMD were the only 3 systems to post losses for the week. Each lost -$512.50, -$910, and -$2000 respectively on long trades which finally reversed short by the end of the week. Tzar has struggled through the narrow range markets the past 6+ months and simply got caught looking for a market bounce. The system is still operating well within historical drawdown expectations; however is trading near the maximum real-time thresholds.

Bond systems continued to suffer through the prospects of higher interest rates. Mesa Bonds and Notes have been stubbornly holding long the declining bond markets for months. Last week Mesa Notes lost -$812.50 in open trade equity and is now only earning +$1,141.28 on its long trade from April 11th. Mesa Bonds on the other hand lost -$1,625 in open trade equity and is currently losing -$1,378.13 on its existing position. Finally, Jaws Narrowneck lost -$1,112.50 on one long trade.

Lastly, Crude systems were active last week as well. Axiom CL 90 closed out a short position near breakeven while Axiom CL 135 entered short and was losing -$1,090 heading into today.

**Long Term**

Don’t look now but after trading higher for most of 2005 the US Bond market seems destined to finish in the red for the year. US 30 year bond prices are up +1.12% thus far in 2005, but since September 1st bond prices are down -4.83%. Certainly, inflation fears and the Fed’s promise to continue raising interest rates for the next 5 to 6 months have led to the sell off. With a new inflation fighting Fed chairman expected to be named soon the bond market could be headed for a broader decline before years end.

Long term trend following systems have noticed the downward trend in the interest rate markets and are starting to accumulate short positions. One system of note is Aberration Plus which has entered short positions in Eurodollars (+$50.00 per contract) and Aussie 10 year Notes (+$696.94 per contract) in anticipation of more downward movement.

Elsewhere, Andromeda is short in the 5 year notes (-$18.75 per contract), Eurodollars (+$62.50 per contract), and 30 year bonds (-$81.25 per contract). Brix is short in the 30 year bonds (+$1168.75 per contract) and in the 10 year notes (-$96.88 per contract). Axiom LT is short in the 10 year notes (+$1559.37 per contract), and SEMA4 Symmetry is short in the Fed Funds (+$402.50 per contract).

Cotton futures continue to feel the effects of Hurricane’s Katrina and Rita gaining +6.15% last week. Systems with long positions in cotton include Axiom LT (+$1160.00 per contract), Andromeda +$615.00 per contract, and Aberration Plus which entered long this morning.

 

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IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE
Futures based investments are often complex and can carry the risk of substantial losses. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

Feature   |   Week In Review   |   Chart of the Week   |