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Managed Futures as Bear Market Protection

February 6, 2006

 

Many readers may be asking why we would write about 'Bear Market Protection' right now, with US stocks fresh off their third straight year of gains, and foreign stock markets posting even stronger gains. But prudence, and a look back to 2000, tell us market tops are exactly when we should be looking at the downside.

Another "indicator" which tells me we should be looking at protecting the downside is the fact that stock market volatility readings are at a 20 year low. The data is telling us people are "looking the other way" right now, and not worried the least bit that the stock market could crash tomorrow. As luck would have it, such complacent sentiment is exactly when things do go awry.

You can see in the chart below that low volatility preceded the Black Monday crash of 1987, the first invasion of Kuwait in 1991, the Asian crises in 1997, the Long Term Capital Management blow up in 1998, and the 9/11 attacks in 2001. You can also see that we are at about 4 years and counting since the last major spike in the VIX, with the previous long spell without a spike coming in at 5 years between 1992 and 1997.

* Source: www.investmentu.com

Are we headed for another volatility spike? It's impossible to tell for sure, but with a new Fed chairman taking the reins last week, a continuing war in Iraq, and potential housing bubble burst - anything could happen. (Black Monday in October 1987 occurred about two months after a man named Alan Greenspan was appointed as Fed Chairman)

Be Prepared:

So the wise investor needs to be prepared no matter what happens, and therefore must have a plan for protecting her portfolio during a bear market or sudden crisis such as a 9/11 type terrorist attack on US soil.

History shows us that managed futures is the place to be during bear markets and crises situations. Futures based investments are often viewed as a way to generate oversized returns due to the leverage built into futures contracts and potential for large moves, but it is their low correlation with traditional markets which causes managed futures investments to be volatility reducers and portfolio diversifies during the bad times.

But what does low correlation really mean to an individual investor. Saying non correlated investments are better than highly correlated ones is fine, but how does it play out in real hard earned money. To tackle this question, we set out to show what low correlation looks like in your portfolio.

We first show how the asset class managed futures reacts to different stress periods, then show the average return of managed futures during both boom and bust times in the stock market, and finally show the size of the average losing month for a portfolio of stocks alone versus a portfolio containing managed futures.

To measure managed futures returns, we chose the Credit Suisse First Boston/Tremont Advisors Managed Futures Index, which is comprised of 164 advisors controlling more than 6.5 Billion is assets (as of June 2002). The CSFB/Tremont index is a calculated index which is asset weighted, meaning larger CTAs have a larger impact on the index performance. Like any index, care must be given in relying on the data given because of inherent problems such as self reporting and survivorship bias.

Because the old saying, "the only thing which rises in a market crash is correlation", seems to bear fruit more often than not, it is helpful to examine any lowly correlated investment during periods of market stress. To accomplish this, we compared the performance of the CSFB/Tremont managed futures index versus that of the S&P 500 during the following four market crisis periods:

1. 1994 - the surprise Fed rate hike in February 1994 sent stocks reeling, and caused the S&L crisis, Orange County bankruptcy, and Mexican Peso devaluation

2. 1998 - This year saw post-Communist Russia default on its debt, causing widening credit spreads across the globe. The widening spreads caused severe losses for several hedge funds, including Long Term Capital Management, which was eventually bailed out by a consortium of banks fearing a LTCM default would result in a severe shock to financial markets.

3. 2000, 2001, 2002 - The much ballyhooed Internet bubble burst - tech crash, which began in March of 2000, and depending on who you speak to either ended in 2002 or remains unfinished.

4. September 2001 - The 9/11 tragedy saw US markets closed several days, with major liquidity and backup fears realized instantly, sending global markets to fresh lows once markets reopened.

The stress period analysis starts to show a clearer picture of what low correlation actually looks like. The lowly correlated managed futures index performed very well during periods of overall market stress, showing positive performance in all four incidences, and averaging over 9% higher performance than the S&P 500 stock index across those periods.

The reason for this is that the drivers of managed futures returns are not the same drivers as those for the stock markets. In fact, they are often opposite, as a bull market in energy prices, for example, can have a negative impact on corporate growth and therefore stock prices while adding to the returns of a trend following managed futures program.

One worry present in a defensive investment is how it reacts during the good times. If the positives are offset by larger or more frequent negatives when the stock market is in rally mode, then the defensive investment serves little purpose. To test this, we looked at the average annual return of the CSFB/Tremont managed futures index and S&P 500 over the boom period of 1995 to 1999, and compared those results to the same indices returns over the bust period lasting from 2000 to 2002.

The table below shows that while an underperformer during the boom period, managed futures still exhibited a positive average annual return. The bust period, in contrast, shows just how powerful diversification into managed futures can be, with the managed futures index averaging positive 8.6% per year versus a negative average annual return of -14.36% for the stock market as measured by the S&P 500. This again shows that low correlation can mean positive performance while your main investments are underperforming.

The last analysis we did was to test a hypothetical portfolio with a 12% allocation to the managed futures index and a 88% allocation to the S&P 500. We often read and hear how beneficial allocating a portion of your assets to a managed futures investment is because of its low correlation, but are rarely shown how this low correlation protects our portfolio.

The table below compares different statistics over the period 1994 through July of this year for two portfolios, one with a 100% allocation to the S&P 500, and a second with an 88% allocation to the S&P 500 index and a 12% allocation to the CSFB/Tremont Managed Futures Index.

The tests show that the portfolio containing the managed futures allocation improves the portfolio across every statistic. The portfolio containing a managed futures allocation has a higher average annual return, (5.0% vs 4.7%), a lower standard deviation (12.1 vs 14.0), and a lower Drawdown (53.0% vs 64.3%). The most telling statistic, and one which should lend credence to the view of managed futures as bear market/crisis protection is the reduction of the average losing month from -3.63% in the portfolio of stocks alone to just -3.09% in the portfolio of stocks and managed futures.

On an annualized basis, this represents 6.48% in bear market protection. This number finally gives us a feeling of what the real benefit of low correlation is. In this case, the benefit is about a 6% higher annual return during a bear market, or the difference between being down 10% for the year during a bad year for stocks or being down just 4%.

Of course, the benefit of managed futures on your portfolio will vary depending on what allocation you decide to give it. The table above shows a 12% allocation to managed futures, and actual allocations run between 0% and 50% of investor's overall assets. It is also important to note that the statistics and graphs above were run using indices, which are difficult and expensive to replicate.

The numbers within the index do come from actual advisors trading actual customers money, however, making the benefits a reality. If looking to managed futures for some of the volatility reducing characteristics outlined above, it is important to find a managed futures investment which exhibits similar characteristics and low correlation to the overall stock market.

Many investors look to a managed futures investment to provide bear market protection without testing the strategy to see if it provides the needed benefit. As a general rule of thumb, the more markets a managed futures program trades, the more like the managed futures index it will be, and the more benefit gained. Those programs or managers specializing in one market or sector - such as an S&P day trading system or CTA specializing in currencies only - may have good looking performance but lack the low correlation and bear market protection characteristics of a more commodities based program which trades multiple markets.

So don't just focus on the possible oversized returns of managed futures and potential high risks that come with those; managed futures offer unique characteristics which can reduce the volatility in your portfolio and add real benefits in times of a market crisis or extended bear market.

How can you get involved in a managed futures program? Attain works with several professional Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) who run managed futures programs, and can match your capital and risk/reward preferences with the right advisor.

- Jeff Malec