The Attain Alternative Investing Crash Course
June 18, 2012
It is a common lament in financial circles of late- the apparent lack of quality alternative invesment educational materials. Don't get us wrong- we KNOW managed futures certainly doesn't have a representative body of literature dedicated to it (aside from ours)- but in the wider world of alternative investments, and investing in general, there actually are a fair amount of books that are not only worthy of your attention, but may help you to better understand the decisions ahead of you. Or, at least, laugh a little bit along the way.
So here we break down the financial missives and exposes that our office has been reading and highly recommends. Or, as we jokingly refer to it around the office, a Master's degree in "Alternative Investment history, operation, and marketing" from the University of Malec.
Time to hit the books:
When Genius Failed, the Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein
We’ve all heard in one form or another that growing as a person (or investor) how critical it is to learn from one's mistakes. Well, this book details the very large mistakes that were made by one of the biggest (and supposedly smartest) hedge funds ever, Long Term Capital Management and their pair of Economics Nobel Prize Laureates. Their collapse nearly crippled the financial system, resulting in an unprecedented bailout from the US fed (sound familiar to current times). Just how such smart people who literally wrote the book on risk got it so wrong is truly an intriguing story which helps the everyday investor understand there is much more to risk than meets the eye. The sheer size of the numbers of dollars being made or lost in this book make it a compelling read.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
One of our personal favorites, this book stands a lot of conventional wisdom on its head by questioning the very fabric of skill and success. Are traders/investment managers actually good? Or just lucky? Mr. Taleb would have you believe there is a lot more luck to it than one would think, and not really even luck as you or I would think about it, but luck in terms of not yet having experienced an outlier event such as a 1 in 100 year storm or "black swan", as he would call it. The end result for Mr. Taleb is a market that is much more random and crazy than can be modeled or predicted, leading those who believe it can be modeled or predicted down a dangerous path. Warning for option sellers - Mr. Taleb is wholeheartedly against option selling, and in fact runs his own hedge fund which specializes in option buying in hopes of profiting from the impending outliers he believes the rest of us aren't thinking about.
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Continuing on with his theories from his first book - Mr. Taleb's follow up book gets into a few more specifics about how the world (and especially the financial world) is comprised of rare events he calls "black swans", which are so rare as to not even be considered as a risk. The tragedy on 9/11 is a prime example of a Black Swan. The stock market crash in October 1987 is another. This book quickly became his most famous work due mostly to its timing, coming out in early 2007 (just monthly before the real life black swan of the credit crisis started to show), and some passages blasting bankers as little more than lemmings following the herd without a clue as to the risk and leverage they are employing.
The Predictors : How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street by Thomas A. Bass
Quite the opposite of the book above, this book details the trials and tribulations of a group who actually did believe the markets could be modeled and profitably predicted. If you have ever thought of writing your own trading system - these guys sure did, and took it to a whole new level. The title is a little misleading, as they were mainly dealing with derivatives markets, not Wall St. stocks and bonds - but it is an interesting read on just how far some will go to "beat" the market. And just how much big money or banks are willing to believe that such "beating" of the market is possible, even if the proof isn't exactly there. The beginning of this book paints a great picture of the now nearly defunct, controlled chaos that is/was futures trading pits in Chicago, and is worth the price of admission just for those few dozen pages.
Handbook of Alternative Assets by Mark J. P. Anson
While this is more of a textbook than a narrative like the other books listed here, and rather statistically heavy, this is a great book for learning the different types of alternative investments, along with the benefits and dangers of each. The many different types of hedge funds, commodity and managed futures, private equity, credit derivatives, and corporate governance are all covered. Anson is the former Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS, the huge California Pension which is the largest Pension fund in the US with nearly $250 Billion in assets, and as such one of the largest investors into alternative investments. With that type of experience, it is worth hearing what he has to say.
The Prize : The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power by Daniel Yergin
For anyone who gets excited whenever the prices at the pump go up and down, or takes a peek at the news or online to see what Crude Oil prices did each day - this book is for you. It is the history of the modern world, in a way, told through the eyes of the oil industry. Did you know the first oil wells in the world were in Pennsylvania, that the rights to Saudi Arabia's oil was first secured for just $175,000, or where the name Shell Oil came from. The Prize is a Pulitzer Prize winning must read that puts you behind the scenes at important cross roads in history where oil was often the main character. With the current state of affairs in the world regarding oil, seeing how we got there is a great exercise.
Little Book of Trading by Michael Covel
Forget about the little book of drink recipes or the little book of pick-up lines- what you really need is the Little Book of Trading. Michael Covel is well-established in the managed futures space when it comes to trend following, and this little text provides the basics needed to really understand the strategy. Think of it as a primer for the core of a managed futures portfolio.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edward Levre
Guess what? Perhaps one of the most classic investing guides in history was not written by a hedge fund guru or stock picking phenomenon- it was penned in the 1920’s as a series of articles in the Saturday Evening Post. The fictionalized account winds up holding more truth than some of the non-fiction options you’ll find floating around your local Barnes & Noble, giving you the basis you need to efficiently expand your investing prowess
Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
What book is almost 600 pages long and worth a 45 minute interview? Oh right, this book, written by the man who pulled back the curtains on pro traders in the 1980s. Learn about discipline and technique from some of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world. As Barry Ritholtz described it, “Schwager explores the differences between great traders and everyone else who thinks they can trade."
Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes and Real Money by Steven Dronby
This book’s title promises to reveal the secrets and profile of hedge funds, but for us, the more interesting part is the time spent explaining who needs alternative investments, how they’re getting them, and what it means for their portfolios. In particular, it glances at some of the larger institutional players, and how their bets on liquidity paid off and didn’t.
Backstage Wall Street: An Insider’s Guide to Knowing Who to Trust, Who to Run From, and How to Maximize Your Investments by Josh Brown
It’s no secret that we’re fans of Josh Brown over at The Reformed Broker. He tells it like it is with a sense of humor and humility, and that same refreshing writing style has transferred over to his new book. If you’re looking for a roadmap to building the perfect portfolio, look elsewhere. This isn’t a sleazy salespitch for a strategy or a dry encyclopedia entry of investment vehicles. Instead, Brown writes candidly about his life in the brokerage world, going so far as to outline the Straight Line Pitch word for word- a pitch that elicited more than handful of chuckles in how familiar it is. Peppered with both industry and personal history for flavor, the book was entrancing, entertaining and informative. If you’re a fan of his blog, or just trying to learn about how to protect yourself from the “sharks” and “whales” of the investing sea, it’s definitely a highly recommended read.
- - - - -
That should keep you busy for a while. What’s your favorite investing book?
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE
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Feature | Week In Review: A “Normal” Week
Last week was a more normal mix of ups and downs than we’ve seen in the last few weeks. As opposed to May, when just about everything headed down in unison, and last week where the opposite was true, this week offered a pretty standard mix of upward and downwards moves among markets. In indices, the Dow gained 1.66%, the S&P 500 rose 1.17%, the Nasdaq was up 0.27%, the S&P Mid-Cap 400 E-mini fell -0.76%, and the Russel 2000 E-mini gained 0.07%. In bonds, US 10-year notes gained 0.22%, and US 30-year bonds gained 0.67%. In currencies, the US Dollar fell -1.25%, the Japanese Yen was up 0.96%, the British Pound gained 1.62%, the Euro gained 0.98%, and the Swiss Franc gained 1.02%.
In metals, Gold rose 2.31%, Silver gained 0.94%, Copper gained 3.00%, Platinum rose 4.36%, and Palladium rose 3.01%. In energies, Crude was down -0.08%, Heating Oil was down -0.96%, RBOB Gasoline gained 0.61%, and Natural Gas gained 7.31%.
In grains, Corn fell -3.09%, Wheat fell -3.29%, and Soy lost -3.52%. In meats, Live Cattle was down -3.46%, and Live Hogs fell -1.35%. In Softs, Cocoa rose 2.84%, Orange Juice was down -3.83%, Cotton fell -2.58%, Coffee fell -3.43%, and Sugar gained 4.30%.
Trading Systems
It was quiet on the day trading side, with PSI! TF gaining just $46.40 on a single trade. On the swing trading side, Bounce TF lost -$710 on one trade, while Bounce EMD lost -$413.33 on one trade. Jaws US 40 US gained $1188.75 on one trade, while Jaws US 60 US lost -$530 on one trade. MoneyMaker ES lost -$1305 on a single trade, and Strategic ES lost -$423.75 after two trades.
CTAs
June hasn’t gotten much better for most of the CTAs we track, but it hasn’t gotten much worse, either. Trendfollowers, Short Term, and Multi-Strategy programs are still suffering the brunt of this month’s snap back from May’s gains. Options programs are mixed so far this month, while Agriculture programs are generally doing well or suffering only minor losses. Only halfway through the month, this June hasn’t turned out to be as bad as it could have been, but we won’t go celebrating just yet. Check out the full heat map below:
|
Program |
%** |
Max DD* |
Strategy Type |
|
5.52% |
-14.17% |
Agriculture |
|
|
3.68% |
-13.79% |
Option |
|
|
2.50% |
-17.57% |
Agriculture |
|
|
1.09% |
-24.05% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
|
0.92% |
-13.17% |
Specialty |
|
|
0.76% |
-11.79% |
Discretionary |
|
|
0.62% |
-32.69% |
Option |
|
|
0.56% |
-36.21% |
Spread Trading |
|
|
0.39% |
-36.21% |
Spread Trading |
|
|
0.39% |
-9.94% |
Specialty |
|
|
0.02% |
-9.98% |
Option |
|
|
-0.15% |
-9.18% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
|
-0.16% |
-17.32% |
Option |
|
|
-0.16% |
-8.34% |
Option |
|
|
-0.16% |
-12.25% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
|
-0.17% |
-16.05% |
Option |
|
|
-0.17% |
-6.69% |
Gold |
|
|
-0.23% |
-18.40% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
|
-0.26% |
-10.28% |
Agriculture |
|
|
-0.27% |
-19.38% |
Agriculture |
|
|
-0.29% |
-15.01% |
Currency |
|
|
-0.49% |
-39.67% |
Agriculture |
|
|
-0.59% |
-1.56% |
Discretionary |
|
|
-0.69% |
-13.00% |
Trendfollowing |
|
|
-0.96% |
-7.46% |
Fixed Income |
|
|
-1.00% |
-17.32% |
Short Term |
|
|
-1.01% |
-18.60% |
Trendfollowing |
|
|
-1.11% |
-5.77% |
Option |
|
|
-1.48% |
-17.55% |
Short Term |
|
|
-1.64% |
-46.49% |
Trendfollowing |
|
|
-3.58% |
-24.44% |
Short Term |
|
|
Attain Portfolio Advisors - Strategic Diversification Program |
-3.68% |
-24.39% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
-4.20% |
-19.38% |
Trendfollowing |
|
|
-5.23% |
-10.31% |
Multi-Strategy |
|
|
-6.38% |
-20.41% |
Trendfollowing |
|
|
-7.20% |
-15.08% |
Option |
|
|
-15.79% |
-30.83% |
Trendfollowing |
*Max DD= A drawdown is the “pain” experienced by an investor in a specific investment. As an example, an investor starting out with a $100,000 account who sees it fall down to $80,000 before it runs back up to $110,000 saw a $20,000 loss ($100K – $80K), which would equal a -20% ($20K/$100K) drawdown. The so called Maximum Drawdown (Max DD) is the worst such peak to valley down period for an investment.
**Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. These performance numbers are calculated using the liquidating value of a single client at Attain trading the listed program, and are believed to be representative of all similar clients invested in the program. A 20% incentive fee and 2% annual management fee are deducted from all profitable months, regardless of whether the program is at a new equity high. These numbers may vary from the actual performance numbers presented by the CTA upon completing their accounting for the month gone by, and should not be considered apart from the performance numbers listed in the disclosure document for the program listed.
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE
Futures based investments are often complex and can carry the risk of substantial losses. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The performance data for the various Commodity Trading Advisor ("CTA") and Managed Forex programs listed above are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, Attain Capital Management, LLC's ("Attain") own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The dollar based performance data for the various trading systems listed above represent the actual profits and losses achieved on a single contract basis in client accounts, and are inclusive of a $50 per round turn commission ($30 per e-mini contracts). Except where noted, the gains/losses are for closed out trades. The actual percentage gains/losses experienced by investors will vary depending on many factors, including, but not limited to: starting account balances, market behavior, the duration and extent of investor's participation (whether or not all signals are taken) in the specified system and money management techniques. Because of this, actual percentage gains/losses experienced by investors may be materially different than the percentage gains/losses as presented on this website.
Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.











